Fruitfulness, Faith, and the Future of Christianity
- Guest Contributors
- Sep 8
- 5 min read
by Bud Houston
What if the greatest threat to the Church today isn’t persecution, secularism, or politics—but falling birthrates?
Christianity’s challenge isn’t simply cultural opposition or declining institutional strength. The real question is whether the gospel will continue to spread from one generation to the next. Two realities loom large: declining birthrates and waning family discipleship. Together, they create a storm that evangelism alone cannot keep pace with.
Affluence, Birthrates, and the Decline of Discipleship
Throughout history, a consistent pattern has emerged: when societies become wealthy, their birthrates tend to decline. More resources lead to more choices—delayed marriage, fewer children, and lifestyles shaped around personal fulfillment. Affluence doesn’t just buy comfort; it buys independence from the family structures that once sustained faith across generations.
We see this across the developed world. In OECD nations, fertility has collapsed from 3.3 children per woman in 1960 to just 1.5 in 2022. In England and Wales, it’s 1.44, and in Germany, just 1.35.
The United States is also moving in the same direction. In 1957, during the baby boom, the U.S. fertility rate peaked at 3.77 children per woman. By 2023 it had fallen to just 1.62, an all-time low according to the CDC—well below replacement.
This matters for faith. When Christian families have fewer children, there are simply fewer sons and daughters to disciple. As affluence grows, not only does the Church shrink demographically, but the culture of family-based faith transmission also weakens. Evangelism alone struggles to fill the gap left behind.
The Missing Piece: Family Discipleship
Declining fertility is only half the story. The other is discipleship or the lack of it. For decades, many churches assumed children would “catch” the faith through Sunday school or youth group. But Scripture’s call is for parents to lead. When that baton isn’t passed, faith withers.
The numbers are sobering. Globally, about 17% of adults raised Christian have left the faith, while just 5.5% have joined, resulting in a net loss (Pew Research Center). In Germany, for every adult who converts to Christianity, nearly 20 leave. In the U.S., young adults are also leaving—about 28% now identify as religiously unaffiliated, up from 16% in 2007 (Pew Research, 2021).
Without strong family discipleship, evangelism becomes a form of triage, failing to sustain generational continuity. The Christian movement cannot thrive if every generation has to start from scratch.
When Birthrates Collapse, Nations Stumble
Low fertility isn’t just a church issue; it’s a societal one. Nations with aging populations face shrinking workforces, higher dependency ratios, and social strain.
In migration-friendly societies, demographic shifts occur even more rapidly. France, for example, has seen fertility fall from 2.03 in 2010 to just 1.68 in 2023 (INSEE). Much of its population growth now comes from immigrant communities, many of them Muslim. This has reshaped France’s religious landscape in just a few decades, illustrating how rapidly demographics and faith practices can change when birthrates diverge.
The U.S. is not immune. Falling fertility combined with a shrinking Christian majority means that if families don’t raise the next generation in faith, other worldviews, secularism, or other religions will fill the gap.
The Counterbalance: Where Christianity is Still Growing
Yet the story is not all decline. Christianity is not dying—it is shifting. The center of gravity of global Christianity has moved southward. In Sub-Saharan Africa, both high fertility and vibrant faith are fueling growth.
According to Pew Research projections, Africa’s Christian population is expected to more than double by 2060, reaching 1.1 billion believers, which will account for nearly 40% of the global total. Nigeria alone is projected to become the third-largest Christian population in the world, after the U.S. and Brazil. Fertility is a significant factor: Sub-Saharan Africa’s fertility rate still averages around 4.6 children per woman, well above replacement.
This reveals an important truth: when fruitful families and discipleship intersect, Christianity not only survives but also expands with explosive vibrancy.
Forming Parents as Disciple-Makers
So how do we respond in places where Christianity is declining? By re-centering on the parent as the primary disciple-maker.
Where do parents live their faith most? At home and in the workplace. These are the frontline arenas for discipleship.
The church is vital—to equip, encourage, and send families out in gospel mission.
The church in the workplace reminds us that vocation is a calling that is not separate from our call to follow Jesus. Our workplace can become a platform for gospel witness and a community of equipping and accountability.
The church in the home is foundational; kids don’t learn discipleship from programs, but from watching their parents live out their faith daily, seeing the Word of God shape their parents, and their parents' decisions.
Parents need practical models: praying around tables, sharing faith in meetings, weaving grace into decisions, and protecting the truth of the gospel. They also need community for accountability and encouragement. When home, work, and church align, families become powerful outposts of kingdom multiplication.
God has given His people a dual assignment:
The Creation Mandate: “Be fruitful and multiply.” (Genesis 1:28)
The Great Commission: “Go and make disciples.” (Matthew 28:19)
Recovering Gospel Multiplication
To thrive into the next century, the Church must recover both birth and discipleship:
Raise children grounded in Christ through everyday discipleship.
Strengthen marriages and homes as gospel hubs.
Proclaim Christ globally with passion.
Equip parents through the church, workplace, and home to lead with faith.
Treat both children and mission as strategic fields for multiplying disciples.
This is not about numbers for numbers’ sake. It is about ensuring the vibrancy of gospel witness until every tribe, tongue, and nation has heard.
Final Word
Economic prosperity and institutional programs don’t safeguard the gospel. Fruitful families, faithful discipleship, and bold evangelism do.
When the church, workplace, and home unite to disciple well, the gospel doesn’t just survive in the face of declining birthrates—it thrives. Embracing both the creation mandate and the Great Commission ensures gospel vibrancy—generation to generation—until the earth is filled with the knowledge of the glory of the Lord.
Notes & Sources
OECD iLibrary, Fertility rates dataset – fertility across OECD countries fell from 3.3 (1960) to 1.5 (2022).
Office for National Statistics (UK), Births in England and Wales: 2023. Fertility rate: 1.44.
Eurostat, Fertility statistics: Germany (2023) — fertility rate 1.35.
CDC, National Vital Statistics Reports, Births: Provisional Data for 2023. U.S. fertility rate at 1.62.
Pew Research Center (2017), The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2015–2060. Globally, 17% of adults raised Christian leave faith; 5.5% join.
Pew Research Center (2017), Europe’s Growing Religious Nones. In Germany, nearly 20 leave Christianity for every one convert.
Pew Research Center (2018), Being Christian in Western Europe. Retention: 51% in South Korea; 57–61% in France, Germany, and UK.
Pew Research Center (2021), About Three-in-Ten U.S. Adults Are Now Religiously Unaffiliated. U.S. “nones” rose to 28%.
INSEE (French National Institute of Statistics), Fertility and Demographic Indicators (2023). Fertility in France fell from 2.03 (2010) to 1.68 (2023).
Pew Research Center (2017), The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2015–2060. Africa projected to reach 1.1 billion Christians by 2060.
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